Abstract: Carbon taxes create global benefits unless offset by increased emissions elsewhere. An additional carbon tax in one country may cause leakage through imports and will also increase costs by creating a wedge between economic marginal costs in different markets, causing an offsetting deadweight loss. We estimate the global benefit, carbon leakage and deadweight cost of the British Carbon Price Support (CPS) on GB's cross-border electricity trade with France and The Netherlands. Over 2015–2020 the unilateral CPS created €72±20 m/yr deadweight loss, about 31% of the initial economic value created by the interconnector, or 2.5% of the global emissions benefit of the CPS at €2.9±0.1 bn/yr. About 16.3±3.5% of the CO2 emissions reduction is undone by France and The Netherlands, the monetary loss of which is about €584±127 m/yr.

Abstract: We examine market reactions to farmout agreements, a common form of strategic alliance undertaken by oil and gas explorers internationally. Using an Australian sample of 722 farmout agreements announced during the 1990–2016 period, we find that farmout announcements generate a positive cumulative average abnormal return of 3.60% for farmors and 1.90% for farminees over a 3-day event window. Cross-sectional analysis of farmors' event returns provides results consistent with the resource pooling hypotheses. We also find that farmors' announcement returns are sensitive to the underlying oil price volatility, consistent with the real options view of farmout arrangements.

Abstract: We show how to value both variable generation and energy storage to enable them to be integrated fairly and optimally into electricity capacity markets. We develop theory based on balancing expected energy unserved against costs of capacity procurement, and in which the optimal procurement is that necessary to meet an appropriate reliability standard. For conventional generation the theory reduces to that already in common use. Further the valuation of both variable generation and storage coincides with the traditional risk-based approach based on equivalent firm capacity. The determination of the equivalent firm capacity of storage requires particular care; this is due both to the flexibility with which storage added to an existing system may be scheduled, and also because, when any resource is added to an existing system, storage already within that system may be flexibly rescheduled. We illustrate the theory with an example based on the GB system.

Abstract: When evaluating public and private investment projects, those that contribute more to the collective risk should be more penalized through an upward adjustment of their discount rate. This paper shows how to estimate the risk-adjusted discount rate for different projects, with applications to the electricity sector. Using the standard framework of consumer theory, we express any investment project's beta in terms of the easier-to-measure price and income elasticities of the goods generated by the project. When considering an investment in production capacity, the beta has a flat term structure, and is positive (negative) for normal (inferior) goods. When considering core infrastructures carrying goods or services, such as energy transmission and distribution assets, the beta has a decreasing term structure with very high values at short horizons for infrastructures facing capacity constraints. We provide a real-case example of a cross-border electricity connection with negative beta for the exporting country.

Abstract: Using the frequency-domain spillover index method, we investigate time-frequency spillovers and their underlying drivers among fossil energy, clean energy and metal markets. We find that short-term spillovers are stronger than long-term spillovers. Global clean energy markets are powerful spillover transmitters that can have strong impacts on fossil energy and metal markets. Rare earth metals are most vulnerable to spillover effects from clean energy and base metal markets, particularly in the long term. Different clean energy sources and metal markets have heterogeneous connectedness, e.g., the impact of wind energy on rare earth market is greater than that of solar energy. The short-term spillovers are mainly driven by policy changes, while the long-term spillovers are mainly affected by stock market uncertainty and economic fundamentals. Our findings have important implications for the construction of optimal diversification strategies and the design of policy incentives to promote clean energy investments across different time horizons.

Abstract: This study investigates the effects of an oil boom on manufacturing plants performance. First, we derive several predictions using a model of heterogeneous firms. Second, we test these predictions on a plant level dataset using the Canadian Annual Survey of Manufacturers for 2000–2010. We exploit the time variation of the booming natural resource sector revenue in an oil-producing area in combination with the location of manufacturing plants to create an exogenous treatment variable. The outcome variables include plant level wages, employment, sales, and exports. We find that initial plant level productivity provides an important differentiation in average plants effects. Plants that are more productive become more likely to export in response to the oil boom, while less productive plants become less likely to export. Exporting firms become more likely to increase wages relative to non-exporting firms, but less likely to increase employment. While there is a great variety in the effect by sector, we do not observe that industry linkages with the resource industry drive plant performance.

Abstract: This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on mergers and acquisition (M&A) activity in the oil and gas sector. Analyzing this industry enables us to construct a natural forward-looking measure of oil price uncertainty, namely the implied crude oil volatility. Using a sample of U.S. firms in the oil and gas sector from 1994-2018 containing 4,323 announced transactions, we document that oil price uncertainty is negatively related to future M&A activity. Uncertainty is mainly a driver of horizontal and vertical M&A activity, where upstream firms are more affected by this uncertainty than downstream firms. Our results lend support to a real options explanation of investment under uncertainty where firms choose to defer investments as a response to increased uncertainty.

Abstract: This paper provides the first empirical analysis of the homeowner-renter gap for electric appliances. Using U.S. nationally representative data, the analysis shows that renters are significantly more likely than homeowners to have electric heat, electric hot water heating, an electric stove, and an electric dryer. The gap is highly statistically significant, prevalent across regions, and holds after controlling for the type, size, and age of the home, as well as for climate and household characteristics. The paper argues that this gap arises from the same split incentives that lead to the "landlord-tenant problem" and discusses the implications of the gap for an emerging set of policies aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions through building electrification.

Abstract: Following the European Union's implementation of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) for buildings, the capitalization of energy efficiency in transaction prices and rents has been subject to much research. This paper uses different identification strategies for the Norwegian residential sales (N = 750,000) and rental (N = 670,000) markets to highlight the endogeneity and methodological limitations associated with assessing the price effects of energy efficiency and the signaling effect of label adoption. We find that the valuation of energy efficiency is subject to unobserved location and quality bias, that labeling has immediate, short-run, and long-run price effects and that different effects are observed in different submarkets. We provide evidence that sample selection issues related to location and time, with methodological and data limitations, are essential factors that must be considered when assessing the effects of the EPC implementation.

Abstract: This paper evaluates investment incentives for wind power under two market designs: uniform and nodal pricing. An electricity system model is developed, that allows for investments in wind power capacities while carefully accounting for static transmission grid constraints. Wind power capacities are assumed to reach the same expansion target by 2030 under both market designs. The results show that the introduction of nodal prices leads to investments in wind power plants shifting to locations with lower wind yield. The amount of electricity fed into the grid from wind power plants, however, is higher under nodal pricing as curtailment is reduced by two-thirds. Furthermore, grid-optimal wind locations are shown to require higher direct subsidy payments but decrease yearly variable supply costs by 1.5% in 2030. Yet distributional effects present an obstacle to the introduction of a nodal pricing regime, with about 75% of German demand facing an increase in electricity costs of about 5%. To mitigate the distorted investment signals arising from uniform pricing regimes, restricting investments within grid expansion areas proves to be more promising than including latitude-dependent generator-component in the grid tariff design.

Abstract: We attempt to investigate how and when foreign direct investment (FDI) impacts different types of environmental pollution in host countries. Using provincial data from China between 1995 and 2015, we find that FDI mitigates air pollution, yet it has insignificant effect on water and solid pollution. We further reveal that it is the combination of the technology, scale and structure effects that jointly determines the impact of FDI on environmental pollution. Among them, the technology effect takes the most dominant role, followed by the scale effect and structure effect. In addition, by considering the time effect on environmental policy change, we suggest that the pollution halo effect mainly occurs after air pollution policy revision. Our findings provide insight on the complex mechanisms and theoretical boundary of FDI on different types of environmental pollutants.

Abstract: Energy poverty measures are gradually becoming less relevant for fast-developing countries, where the energy mix consists of traditional and modern energies. We propose a new approach for measuring energy poverty by modifying the Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) demand system to include implied disutility of energy use. The disutility arises from the effects of price or income changes and the use of polluting energies. Using data from Vietnam, we found that energy poverty could happen at higher income levels than the level considered in the literature, and higher incomes may not encourage households to climb the energy ladder. However, consuming carbon-intensive fuel does not necessarily mean energy poor.

Abstract: Suppliers and large buyers of electricity often sign load-following forward contracts (LFFCs). A LFFC obligates an electricity supplier to deliver at a pre-specified unit price a fraction of the buyer's ultimate demand for electricity. We show that relative to more standard ("swap") forward contracts, LFFCs can reduce the variation in the wholesale price of electricity. However, LFFCs also can increase the expected wholesale price and thereby reduce expected consumer surplus and total surplus.

Abstract: The Australian Electricity Market Operator generates one-day ahead electricity demand forecasts for the National Electricity Market in Australia and updates these forecasts over time until the time of dispatch. Despite the fact that these forecasts play a crucial role in the decision-making process of market participants, little attention has been paid to their evaluation and interpretation. Using half-hourly data from 2011 to 2015 for New South Wales and Queensland, it is shown that the official half-hourly demand forecasts do not satisfy the econometric properties required of rational forecasts. Instead there is a relationship between forecasts and forecast horizon similar to a term structure model of interest rates. To study the term structure of demand forecasts, a factor analysis that uses a small set of latent factors to explain the common variation among multiple observables is implemented. A three-factor model is identified with the factors admitting interpretation as the level, slope and curvature of the term structure of forecasts. The validity of the model is reinforced by assessing the economic value of demand forecasts. It is demonstrated that simple adjustments to long-horizon electricity demand forecasts based on the three estimated factors can enhance the informational content of the official forecasts.

Abstract: We analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity consumption patterns. We highlight the importance of decomposing total electricity consumption into consumption by firms and by households to better understand the economic and social impacts of the crisis. While electricity demand by firms has fallen substantially, the demand by households has gone up. In particular, our focus is on Spain where, during the total lockdown, these effects reached –29% and +10% respectively, controlling for temperature and seasonality. While the electricity demand reductions during the second wave were milder, the demand by firms remained 5% below its normal levels. We also document a change in people’s daily routines in response to the stringency of the lockdown measures, as reflected in their hourly electricity consumption patterns.

Abstract: We explore a major European competition decision, the 2012–18 Gazprom case, using a global gas market simulation model. We find that access to LNG markets alone is insufficient to counterbalance Gazprom’s strategic behaviour; central and eastern Europe (CEE) needs to be well interconnected with bidirectional flow capability. 'Swap deals’ created by the decision facilitate CEE market integration, while limiting Gazprom’s potential market power. Such deals may increase the diversity of contracted gas and number of market players, but do not improve physical supply diversity. In the next five years, swap deals could marginally impact negatively the utilization of strategic assets in CEE, but since Gazprom's commitments expire by mid-2026, utilization of these strategic assets may fall considerably, especially if Gazprom withholds supplies. As an unintended consequence, CEE markets may disintegrate from the rest of Europe. Avoiding such outcomes will require further gas market reforms, particularly, market design for gas transportation.

Abstract: We revisit the issue of the energy efficiency (EE) gap by explicitly acknowledging the two-sided nature of the rental housing market and two-sided asymmetries of information between tenants and landlords. Employing a theoretical matching model, we show that Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) that signal a dwelling’s energy performance induce optimal EE investments by landlords only if tenants pay their energy expenditures in full. When landlords pay part of the energy expenditures, they seek tenants who will conserve energy. Our model shows that asymmetry of information over tenant characteristics results in suboptimally low investments in EE. This may even render EPCs counterproductive. As a remedy, we show that tenant-side signaling needs to be rolled out jointly with EPCs and may even be sufficient when contracts include energy expenditures. Data from an original survey provides support for these insights and suggests that information on the tenants’ side contributes to more EE investment.

Abstract: While we can say that there is a global market for crude oil, we cannot say the same for natural gas. There is a strand of literature that argues that, in the last decades, gas markets have become less regional and more global. We use wavelets to test this hypothesis and conclude otherwise: although the European and Japanese gas markets are significantly synchronized, they are much less than the oil markets, which we take as the benchmark. We also show that the North American gas market fluctuations are independent of the other gas markets. Finally, we show that the existing synchronization between gas markets almost vanishes once one filters out the effect of oil price variations, suggesting that it is the global oil market that connects the regional gas markets.

Abstract: This paper introduces the ex-ante estimation of the variance risk premium. The novel methodology proposed is applied to forecast variance risk premium in energy markets, capturing the future degree of aversion of investors towards energy variance risks. We analyze the ex-ante variance risk premium of two energy indices, XLE and USO, during the period that spans from 2011 to 2022, and compare them to that of the SPX, the benchmark for the equity market. In the computation of the ex-ante variance risk premium, simple GARCH and Markov-switching GARCH models are exploited to forecast the realized variance, while variance swap rates are retrieved from the volatility indices VXXLE, OVX, and VIX of the three market indices. We find that the ex-ante variance risk premium succeeds to forecast the imminent periods of financial distress empirically detected in the abrupt surges and plunges of the ex-post variance risk premium. In particular, USO shows higher magnitudes of the variance risk premium than XLE and SPX, predicting that investors require on average higher premiums to bear oil variance risks.

Abstract: This paper sheds light on the negative pricing of the May 2020 WTI futures contract (CLK20) on April 20, 2020. The super contango of early 2020, triggered by COVID-19 lockdowns and geopolitical tensions, incentivized cash and carry (C&C) traders to be long CLK20 and short distant contracts, while simultaneously booking storage at Cushing. Our investigation reveals that C&C arbitrage largely contributed to the lack of storage capacity at Cushing in April 2020 and the price crash relates to the reversing trades of many long CLK20 traders without pre-booked storage. Additional aggravating factors included a liquidity crush, staggering margin calls and potential price distortions due to the trade-at-settlement mechanism. The analysis suggests that claims from experts that hold index trackers responsible for the crash are unwarranted: Index trackers did not trigger the negative pricing, nor widen the futures-spot spread by rolling their positions to more distant contracts ahead of maturity.